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08 Jun 2026
Trend Report - January, 2026
Indian Steel Industry: January 2026 – A Trend Report

Joint Plant Committee

Indian Steel Industry
January 2026 – A Trend Report

India remains a bright spot in the global steel industry and the steel demand in the country is expected to show a healthy growth of around 9% in both 2025 and 2026 compared to no growth and just 1.3% growth in global demand, according to the latest Short Range Outlook released by the World Steel Association. Indian steel demand will continue to charge ahead, driven by continued growth in all steel-using sectors. In 2026, steel demand in India is projected to be almost 75 million tonnes higher than in 2020.

World Economy at a Glance
51.9
JP Morgan Global Mfg PMI
▲ 44-month high (Feb 2026)
56.9
India Mfg PMI (Feb 2026)
▲ Fastest growth globally
7
Months PMI > 50.0
▲ Consecutive expansion
#1–5
Asian Economies in Output Growth
▲ India leads
  • Global manufacturing business conditions improved in February 2026 to the greatest extent since June 2022, as rates of expansion in output and new orders gathered pace. Business optimism rose to a 21-month high.
  • The top five spots in national output growth rankings were all held by Asian economies. Fastest production growth was recorded in India, followed by Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines and Taiwan.
  • Faster rates of expansion in Asia and Europe contrasted with weaker growth in North America. The rate of increase in output in the US slipped to a five-month low.
Country GDP 2024 (% change)* Manufacturing PMI
January 2026 February 2026
India6.5**55.456.9
China5.050.352.1
Japan0.151.553.0
USA2.852.451.6
Eurozone0.949.550.8
Brazil3.447.047.3
Russia4.149.449.5
South Korea2.051.251.1
Germany−0.249.150.9
Turkey3.248.149.3
Italy0.748.150.6
Source: GDP: official releases; PMI – Markit Economics. *provisional  |  **FY 2024-25
Global Crude Steel Production
298.2 Mt
World Production (Jan–Feb 2026)
▼ −1.5% yoy
28.9 Mt
India Production (Jan–Feb 2026)
▲ +9.7% yoy | Rank #2
160.3 Mt
China Production (Jan–Feb 2026)
▼ −3.6% yoy | 53.8% share
RankCountryJan–Feb 2026 (Mt)% YoY Change
1China160.340−3.6%
2India28.888+9.7%
3USA13.652+4.9%
4Japan13.149−0.3%
5Russia10.507−9.0%
6South Korea10.431+2.5%
7Turkey6.415+4.7%
8Germany5.915+9.9%
9Brazil5.262−3.4%
10Iran4.272+7.9%
Top 10 Total258.829−1.0%
World Total298.205−1.5%
Source: worldsteel (provisional)
Global DRI Production

World DRI production stood at 19.088 Mt in January–February 2026, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.6%. India led global DRI production with 54.2% share.

RankCountryJan–Feb 2026 (Mt)% YoY Change
1India10.344+11.1%
2Iran3.003+28.4%
3Russia1.409+0.3%
4Egypt1.175+0.6%
5Saudi Arabia1.012+3.9%
Top 5 Total16.945+11.5%
World19.088+9.6%
Source: worldsteel (provisional)
World Steel Price Trends

Steel prices witnessed an upward trend in January 2026 in major markets (India, China, USA, EU) both year-on-year and month-on-month. Some Chinese products remained flat due to domestic oversupply from the prolonged property market crisis.

Key Price Drivers
a
US Trade Tariff

High US tariffs on India may affect value-added steel exports in the short run. Negotiations ongoing.

b
Geopolitical Uncertainty

Russia-Ukraine & Israel-Iran conflicts impacting supply of ferroalloys and coking coal, raising input costs.

c
Oversupply Condition

China's overcapacity due to weak domestic demand is leading to surging steel exports and protectionist reactions.

d
EU CBAM

EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism took effect Jan 2026, affecting ~60% of Indian steel exports to Europe.

Long Products – TMT Bars

Prices rose both y-o-y and m-o-m in India, China, USA and EU in January 2026.

  • India: Sharp rally driven by high raw material costs, increased infrastructure demand, and safeguard duties.
  • USA: Buyers saw increases from all major mills.
  • EU: Northern Europe +3.4%, Italy +1.8%, driven by surging production and energy costs.
Flat Products – HRC

HRC prices also rose both y-o-y and m-o-m across major markets.

  • India: Higher mill offers, rising input costs and tight near-term supply.
  • USA: Limited spot supply from domestic mills, extended lead times.
  • Europe: Mills hiked Q2 targets; CBAM and safeguard measures tightening imports.

[Source Credit: Fastmarkets Metal Bulletin]

Raw Material Scenario

Prices of major steel-making raw materials generally witnessed a rising trend in January 2026 both year-on-year and month-on-month.

Raw MaterialYoY TrendMoM Trend
Premium Low Vol HCC FOB Australia▲ Up▲ Up
Iron Ore 65% Fe Blast Furnace Pellet (CFR Qingdao)▲ Up▲ Up
Platts TSI HMS I/II (80:20)▲ Up▲ Up
Platts IODEX 62% Fe CFR North China▲ Up▼ Down
Data source: Platts
News Around the Globe
EU and India sealed the "largest" trade agreement ever — India will reduce tariffs on automobile imports from 110% to as low as 10%; EU will cut duties on agricultural imports.
Tokyo Steel (Japan) became the first Japanese steelmaker to get Environmental Product Declaration (EPD) certification for non-fossil-fuel-powered hot-rolled coil.
India imposed a three-year safeguard duty on imports of select flat steel products from China, Vietnam and Nepal, citing serious injury to the domestic industry.
Turkey imposed an antidumping duty of 3.95% on cold-rolled stainless flat steel from China.
Kurum International awarded Danieli a contract for a new low-carbon steel plant in Elbasan, Albania.
Tata Steel UK making preparations at Port Talbot for a new 3.2 Mt/year electric arc furnace.
China's accelerating passenger car sales decline set to intensify pressure on the flat steel market in early 2026.
Australian miner GM3 declared force majeure on Illawarra coking coal supplies due to Dendrobium mine issues and heavy rainfall.
ArcelorMittal Tailored Blanks initiated consultations on potential closure of its automotive steel facility in Ghent, Belgium.
US International Trade Administration announced preliminary countervailing duty determinations on steel rebar imports from Algeria, Egypt and Vietnam.
Serbia introduced a temporary quota (169,650 mt) on hot and cold-rolled coil, rebar and wire rod imports (Jan 1 – Jun 30).
Indian Steel Market Round-Up (April–December 2025-26)
124.6 Mt
Crude Steel Production
▲ +11.4%
118.7 Mt
Finished Steel Production
▲ +10.5%
4.65 Mt
Finished Steel Import
▼ −37.4%
4.80 Mt
Finished Steel Export
▲ +33.3%
Item Apr–Dec 2025-26* (Mt) Apr–Dec 2024-25 (Mt) % Change
Crude Steel Production124.551111.843+11.4%
Hot Metal Production71.69967.494+6.2%
Pig Iron Production6.3646.301+1.0%
Sponge Iron Production44.54741.467+7.4%
Total Finished Steel Production118.699107.426+10.5%
Import4.6497.424−37.4%
Export4.7993.600+33.3%
Consumption119.574111.727+7.0%
Source: JPC; *provisional; Mt = million tonnes
Export Highlights
  • Overall exports up by 33.3% at 4.799 Mt
  • Top exported item: HR Coil/Strip (1.691 Mt, 35% share)
  • Largest export market: Italy (0.877 Mt)
  • Flat products: 86% share of exports (+35.1%)
Import Highlights
  • Overall imports down by 37.4% at 4.649 Mt
  • India was a net exporter of finished steel in Apr–Dec 2025-26
  • Top imported item: HR Coil/Strip (1.676 Mt, 36% share, −48.5%)
  • Largest source: South Korea (1.705 Mt, 37% share)
Production Mix
  • Non-alloy steel: 108.472 Mt (91.4% share), up 9.4%
  • Non-flat (54% share): Bars & Rods led at 49.459 Mt (+7.6%)
  • Flat (46% share): HRC led at 44.737 Mt (+12.4%)
  • Private sector led with 84% share of crude steel
Consumption Mix
  • Total consumption: 119.574 Mt, up 7.0%
  • Non-alloy steel: 108.626 Mt (91% share), up 6.5%
  • Non-flat (54%): Bars & Rods at 49.728 Mt (+7.9%)
  • Flat (46%): HRC at 44.340 Mt (+4.8%)
Indian Economy – Highlights of Performance
GDP: Real GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q2 (July–September) 2025-26 reached ₹48.63 lakh crore, up from ₹44.94 lakh crore in Q2 2024-25 — a growth of 8.2%. Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services reported highest growth at 10.2%. Mining & Quarrying contracted by 0.04%.
Industrial Production: Index of Industrial Production for April–December 2025-26 rose by 3.9% over the same period of the previous fiscal.
Infrastructure Growth: Eight Core Infrastructure Industries grew 2.6% in April–December 2025-26. Steel sector reported the highest growth of 9.5%. Five sectors (Steel, Cement, Electricity, Refinery Products, Fertilizers) reported positive growth. Natural Gas reported steepest contraction of −3.2%.
Inflation: CPI stood at 2.75% and WPI at 1.81% in January 2025. Both moved up significantly compared with the previous month.
Prepared by: Joint Plant Committee (JPC)
Indian Steel Industry: January 2026 – A Trend Report  |  Sources: worldsteel, Markit Economics, Platts, Fastmarkets Metal Bulletin, CSO/DPIIT (India)
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